BRICS Without Xi: A Power Shift or a Strategic Pause?
For over a decade, Xi Jinping’s presence at BRICS summits has been a constant, a ritual that signaled China’s unrelenting ambition to shape the global south’s future. But in a striking departure, China’s president is absent from this year’s gathering in Brazil. Instead, Premier Li Qiang—China’s second-in-command—is attending in his place. At face value, this may look like a diplomatic downgrade. But in truth, it’s a telling move at a critical juncture for both China and the ever-expanding BRICS alliance.
This year’s summit was meant to be a celebration. BRICS, originally a five-nation bloc—Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—has morphed into BRICS+, now boasting new members like Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, the UAE, and Indonesia. The group, once dismissed as a loose economic club, is beginning to show hints of political ambition: challenging the dominance of the U.S. dollar, investing in alternative financial systems, and increasingly positioning itself as a counterweight to Western-led institutions like the G7 and IMF.
Yet Xi’s decision to skip the summit may reflect deeper realities within China itself. The Chinese economy is weathering turbulent waters: sluggish consumer confidence, a real estate sector still reeling from developer debt crises, and a tech industry subdued by regulatory crackdowns. Add to that rising youth unemployment and foreign investors growing cautious amid geopolitical tensions. With economic stability slipping from the Chinese public’s grasp, Xi seems to be signaling a pivot inward—less theater, more triage.
But make no mistake—this is not retreat. It’s recalibration.
By sending Li Qiang, China signals continuity without extravagance. It’s a tactical play, a reminder that while China remains the economic heavyweight of BRICS, it is now choosing to lead from behind the curtain. Beijing is still deeply invested in BRICS+, especially its long-term goals: promoting de-dollarization, boosting trade in local currencies, and building up the New Development Bank as a viable rival to the World Bank. Yet Xi’s no-show quietly acknowledges that domestic fires need extinguishing before global bonfires can be lit.
On the global stage, this has left an unexpected power vacuum. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, with his usual diplomatic finesse, is seizing the moment. With India positioning itself as a bridge between East and West—and now, perhaps, even as a leader within the BRICS+ constellation—Modi is stepping into a role China has traditionally dominated. South Africa’s Cyril Ramaphosa is also leveraging the opportunity to push Africa’s development agenda, while Russia’s Vladimir Putin appears only via video, constrained by international travel restrictions and war in Ukraine.
Meanwhile, the U.S., under Trump’s second administration, is turning the screws with fresh tariffs and blunt-force diplomacy. As Washington’s trade war rhetoric escalates, BRICS is being thrust from the shadows into the spotlight. Can it act cohesively? Or will the ideological, strategic, and economic differences between its members—India’s tense border with China, Russia’s pariah status, Iran’s sanctions, and Brazil’s uncertain leadership—expose cracks too wide to plaster over?
The coming months will be critical. Xi may not be in Brazil, but China’s imprint remains heavy. The real question is whether the rest of BRICS+ can rise to the challenge and present a credible alternative vision for the 21st century global order—or whether internal contradictions will stall its momentum.
Xi’s absence doesn’t mean China is retreating from global affairs. It may mean Beijing is betting on a longer game. For a nation known for strategic patience, pulling back today might just be a move to leap farther tomorrow.