Why has India suddenly stepped up its alert status in the Indo-Pacific? The answer lies in the roaring engines of Chinese fighter jets circling Taiwan—actions that are sending ripples far beyond the Taiwan Strait, right to New Delhi’s strategic doorstep.
- The Gathering Storm: China Redefines the Taiwan Strait
In early 2025, the Indo-Pacific witnessed a historic surge in Chinese military assertiveness. The PLA’s jets shattered previous records, crossing the Taiwan Strait median line 248 times in January—1.75x the old peak—and by February, incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ had quadrupled year-on-year, hitting an unprecedented 610 flights. Warships and drone encirclements followed, with 419 naval vessels detected in February, alongside new grey-zone tactics: undersea cable sabotage, unannounced live-fire zones near Kaohsiung, and routine Chinese Coast Guard intrusions near Kinmen.
This is more than posturing. Beijing’s playbook now revolves around normalizing a near-constant military presence—blurring lines between warning shots and war preparations. No longer do these drills match political events; they’ve become the new status quo, wearing down Taiwan’s defenses and desensitizing the world to “crisis fatigue.” As of June 2025, international monitoring agencies report China maintaining its most robust and consistent air-sea presence to date, with experts warning of further escalation in the second half of the year, especially as the U.S. ramps up support for Taiwan with new military aid packages and intelligence sharing.
- The Global Stakes: Why Taiwan’s Skies Matter to India
When Chinese jets scream through Taiwan’s skies, the sound reverberates thousands of kilometers away—in Indian boardrooms, government war rooms, and bustling ports. On the surface, the Taiwan Strait might look like a distant flashpoint, but for India, the consequences of a crisis here are immediate, vast, and deeply personal.
2.India’s Economic Lifeline Runs Through the Strait
First, follow the trade routes. The Taiwan Strait is one of the world’s busiest maritime arteries, with nearly 90% of global container ships—including those carrying vital goods to and from India—navigating its narrow waters. This corridor connects India not just to East Asia, but to the beating heart of global commerce.
A single major disruption—whether from a naval blockade, airspace closure, or even the threat of conflict—could paralyze container traffic, trigger insurance shocks, and send shipping costs skyrocketing. According to Bloomberg’s June 2025 analysis, even a week-long halt could cause billions in losses for Indian exporters, disrupt supply chains, and destabilize the rupee.
3.The Energy Squeeze: Oil and Gas Vulnerabilities
But it’s not just trade. India’s energy security is directly tied to these sea lanes. Over 55% of India’s crude oil—vital for the country’s transportation, power, and industry—travels from the Middle East, passing right through the South China Sea and near Taiwan. Similarly, natural gas shipments, coal, and other resources critical to India’s growth all follow these choke points.
If the Taiwan Strait were to close, even temporarily, it would trigger a supply shock and drive up prices at Indian petrol pumps and power plants. The government’s worst-case scenarios now include fuel rationing and power disruptions, given the country’s limited strategic oil reserves and dependence on seaborne energy.
4.The Semiconductor Sword of Damocles
India’s high-tech ambitions—and everyday life—are also at risk. Taiwan is the undisputed king of advanced semiconductors, with TSMC and its peers controlling over 60% of global chip production. These chips are the brains of smartphones, cars, medical devices, telecom infrastructure, and defense systems. Indian tech manufacturers, automakers, and even government agencies are all dependent on a steady flow of Taiwanese chips.
A shooting war or blockade would grind this supply to a halt. According to the June 2025 Indian Electronics Association report, even a month-long disruption would cripple smartphone assembly lines, delay auto production, and spark price hikes for everything from laptops to refrigerators. The stakes are so high that the Indian government has accelerated semiconductor investment and partnerships with Taiwan, aiming to “chip-proof” its economy.
5.Dominoes Across the Indo-Pacific: Chokepoint Chaos
The Taiwan Strait is not isolated. It’s the gateway to a chain of critical maritime chokepoints—the Malacca Strait, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Bab-el-Mandeb—through which most of India’s trade and energy pass. If conflict breaks out near Taiwan, ripple effects could choke these other arteries, too, leading to a domino effect of congestion, delays, and security risks.
6.Financial and Market Turbulence
Markets are global—and India’s stock exchanges, currency, and commodity prices are hypersensitive to security developments in the Taiwan Strait. A single incident—such as a near-miss between Chinese and Taiwanese jets, or rumors of a blockade—can cause panicked selloffs, capital flight, and investor jitters.
The Reserve Bank of India’s June 2025 financial stability report flags the Taiwan Strait as the region’s top “geo-economic risk,” warning that escalating tensions could destabilize not just trade and manufacturing, but the financial sector and investment climate as well.
7.Strategic Vulnerability and the “Weaponization” of Interdependence
Finally, the very interconnectedness that has fueled India’s economic rise now threatens to be weaponized. China could use its military pressure on Taiwan not just as a direct threat, but as a lever to create chaos in global supply chains—hitting India hardest, given its reliance on maritime trade and imported technology.
What’s more, if China succeeds in normalizing such aggression in the Taiwan Strait without significant pushback, it sets a precedent that could one day threaten India’s own maritime interests in the Indian Ocean or beyond.
III. Why India Is Watching Closely: The Domino Effect
The rising tide of Chinese military activity around Taiwan isn’t just a distant thunderstorm for India—it’s a potential trigger for cascading crises that could hit New Delhi on several fronts at once.
8.Two-Front Security Nightmare
India’s strategic anxiety centers on the real prospect of a two-front conflict. The 3,488 km Line of Actual Control (LAC) with China remains volatile, scarred by recent standoffs from Doklam to Galwan. Should conflict erupt in the Taiwan Strait, Indian military planners worry Beijing might seize the opportunity to increase pressure along the contested Himalayan border. Complicating matters, Pakistan—China’s “all-weather” partner—could be emboldened to escalate tensions on India’s western front, stretching India’s military and diplomatic bandwidth dangerously thin.
9.China’s Encirclement Strategy: The “String of Pearls”
India’s concerns don’t stop at its northern borders. China’s “String of Pearls” strategy—establishing dual-use ports and infrastructure from Gwadar (Pakistan) to Hambantota (Sri Lanka), Kyaukpyu (Myanmar), and Djibouti—has created a web of Chinese influence around the Indian Ocean. During a Taiwan crisis, China could leverage these assets to disrupt Indian shipping, monitor naval movements, or stage operations, limiting India’s maneuvering space in its own maritime backyard.
10.Economic Vulnerabilities Become Strategic Weaknesses
If tensions around Taiwan spike, India faces economic aftershocks not just from blocked sea lanes, but also from potential Chinese retaliation. With China still India’s largest trading partner and critical supplier of inputs for industries from pharma to electronics, even indirect fallout—like new sanctions or sudden export bans—could hamper India’s economic stability.
11.Escalation Risks and Strategic Dilemmas
Finally, India recognizes that a crisis in the Taiwan Strait could rapidly spiral into a wider regional conflict, drawing in the US, Japan, and Australia—the very partners India relies on for balancing China. If hostilities expand, New Delhi would face the agonizing choice between deeper alignment with these democracies or trying to preserve its strategic autonomy—a decision with enormous long-term implications for its foreign policy.
12.India’s Response: Partnerships, Preparedness, and Pragmatism
New Delhi’s answer?
Deepening Strategic Partnerships
In the face of China’s assertiveness, India has doubled down on building strong partnerships—most notably through the Quad, which includes the US, Japan, and Australia. June 2025 saw India participating in its largest-ever joint Indo-Pacific maritime exercises, boosting interoperability and sending a clear signal of commitment to regional security. Behind the scenes, India has also quietly expanded its security and economic dialogues with Taiwan, especially in critical areas like semiconductors, tech, and renewable energy. While New Delhi officially upholds its “One China” policy, it is strategically strengthening unofficial ties that build resilience and mutual benefit.
13.Accelerating Defense Modernization
Recognizing the risks of a two-front scenario, India has increased its defense spending to a record high for 2025-26, with a focus on self-reliance. The government’s “Atmanirbhar Bharat” push has resulted in major investments in domestic defense production—ranging from advanced fighter jets and missiles to indigenous warships like the INS Vikrant. The military is also upgrading border infrastructure and strengthening its presence in the Indian Ocean, where Chinese naval activity is being watched more closely than ever.
14.Navigating Economic Realities and Diplomatic Constraints
India treads carefully on the diplomatic front, maintaining official ambiguity on Taiwan’s status while pragmatically boosting bilateral trade, technology, and educational exchanges. This balancing act is essential: open support for Taiwan risks economic retaliation from Beijing, which remains a crucial trade partner. At the same time, India is working to reduce over-dependence on China by building alternative supply chains with partners across the Indo-Pacific, including Taiwan.
15.Strategic Autonomy Remains Key
While India values its growing alignment with the US and other democracies, it is not willing to become anyone’s junior partner. New Delhi’s commitment to strategic autonomy shapes every move—engaging multilaterally, building up indigenous capabilities, and keeping its diplomatic options open.
16.The Road Ahead: A Volatile Balance
June 2025 marks a turning point. China’s normalization of military pressure on Taiwan—fighter jets, naval armadas, and hybrid operations—means that the “old normal” in the Strait is gone. For India, the stakes are no longer distant or abstract. Every sortie over Taiwan is a warning siren for New Delhi, echoing across land borders, shipping lanes, and supply chains.
As the second half of 2025 unfolds—with more U.S. arms to Taiwan, China’s drills intensifying, and global markets on edge—India’s role as both a regional balancer and a potential stabilizer will only grow. The Indo-Pacific’s stability could well depend on how India navigates this razor’s edge—watching, preparing, and, if needed, responding to the roar of Chinese jets over Taiwan.
